Forecasting is a probabilistic process dedicated to point out the highest chances of something to happen. It could be simple things such as identifying if the next result when flipping a coin, to complex knowledge such as the likelihood of a third world war to happen. Even bizarre forecasts could be conducted, such as the likelihood of a specific cow to lie down (yes, this study was really conducted and had even received a scientific award!).
However, a special research conducted by psychologists Phil Tetlock and Barbara Mellers at the University of Pennsylvania under the sponsorship of US Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity (IARPA), aiming to refine forecasting procedures. Instead of only identifying better tools and methodologies, the researchers were able to identify that 2% of the tested forecasters were incredibly more effective in forecasting results in every test. These 2% were then named superforecasters, people with an amazing talent to analyse data and evidence through unusual cognitive links. This project, which has become a book when it ended, identified the following characteristics of every superforecaster:
Then, the researchers have founded Good Judgement Inc., aimed to identify and train superforecasters through top-notch methodologies developed from the original research. Any person interested in testing and training their minds to become more accurate in their forecasts can apply for a special course provided by the organisation.
Watch the following video about the book which explains the nature of superforecasters:
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